Commentary: Every election indicator points to a big Democratic win. Here’s why I believe the polls.

All of the indicators suggest we are on the brink of a very large Democratic victory in the 2026 election. Not only is polling consistent and increasingly strong on this point, all of the non-polling indicators lead to the same observation.

BUT CAN’T THE POLLS BE WRONG? 

Of course. And individual polls often are. What gets publicly reported is a wide mix of polls which unfortunately often do not distinguish scientifically sound, carefully constructed polls conducted by folks with many years of education and training, from those conducted by those with little expertise. All too often, they are given equal attention. But even the best polls can be off for a variety of reasons. And folks like me who have serious training in the relevant disciplines are more aware than most of the potential pitfalls of even the most well-conducted polls.   

Still there a number of reasons to suggest that the Democratic margin is real.

CONSISTENCY: This year, almost all polls show that the Democrats are “beating the spread” across the board. There is an expected variation between polls, due to margin of error and other methodological differences, but the overall pattern is unusually clear.

TREND: Over the last several months, poll averages have shown increasing movement in a Democratic direction. Democrats lead in several states that Trump won by double-digits and rock-ribbed Republican states like Nebraska and Kansas have started to appear on the landscape as possibly winnable by Democrats. These are head-turning changes.

ENTHUSIASM: Polls have consistently shown that Democratic voters are far more enthusiastic and have a much higher intention of actually voting in this election cycle than are Republicans.

NON-POLLING INDICATORS   

1. 2025 elections: In the special elections of 2025, Democrats consistently outperformed historical margins, generally by about 10%, a huge difference.
2. 2026 primary turnout: In the 2026 primaries, Democrats were unusually likely to turn out and vote in much greater proportions than were Republicans.
3. Prediction markets: These also suggest Democratic victories. These, however, are not really independent of polls. Why? Prediction markets just reflect conventional wisdom. And where does conventional wisdom come from? Mostly the polls mitigated by the influence of some “expert” commentary. Examples of the latter: “Susan Collins always outperforms the polls” or “Texas has been Republican as long as anyone can remember.” Such observations are true…until they are not. Such commentary was the reason James Talarico, the Democrat running for U.S. Senate in Texas, consistently trailed in the prediction markets in the early part of the year, even though he led in the polls. His polling numbers have not changed much, but the prediction markets have moved in his favor as his polling lead has persisted.

Bottom Line Predictions 

It is hard to see how the Democrats do NOT take the House. And they are favored to take the Senate, with approximately a 60% probability of getting to 51 seats. (Nate Silver just adjusted his  probability estimate to 75%.) At the beginning of the year, a Democratic Senate takeover was seen as a long shot. It is now more likely than not. The trend is clearly with them, but there are five or six races that are tossups. A 60% probability of winning the Senate is only a little better than a coin flip and hardly a sure thing.

A warning for Democrats

You are likely to win big in this election. Don’t let it go to your head. These results portend an anti-MAGA, anti-Trump vote, not a pro-Democratic vote. Your approval numbers are only slightly less negative than those of the Republicans. I agree with analyst Charlie Cook, who described the likely results of this election as a “Red Undertow” rather than a “Democratic Wave.”

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Courtesy of Arizona Mirror