Unknown Unknowns

The idea of “unknown unknowns” was popularized by Donald Rumsfeld, the US Secretary of Defense prior to the Iraq War, talking about the potential that Iraq was supplying weapons of mass destruction to terrorist groups. It was suspected, but no one knew for certain.

The idea percolated through culture, that there are things you know (“known knowns”), things you don’t know (“known unknowns”), and then the things you don’t know and don’t even know you don’t know: the unknown unknowns. And that’s where the biggest problems arise.

Known knowns are like your fuel gauge on your car: if it’s heading towards empty, you know that and can do something about it.

Known unknowns—the problems you don’t know about, but know you don’t know—would be like how much gas you still have in the tank when the needle actually hits the “E.” There is uncertainty, but you can still prepare.

But an unknown unknown is like you have a leak in the gas tank and aren’t aware of it. It will bring about constant problems until you find out about it. It could potentially cause a major disaster – and you might never even know the cause.

For the American government, one of its main reasons to exist is to protect the American people and keep them safe. And that has many facets, from foreign policy to transportation infrastructure to public health. 

People can disagree on exactly what should be within the purview of the national government, but in general the common understanding is that the federal government has a responsibility for risks that affect the country as a whole.

In so doing, there are known knowns, the risks that we know, like cyber threats to the electrical grid. There are known unknowns, like when and from what direction the next hurricane will strike. We can prepare for those.

And there are the unknown unknowns. Risks no one is anticipating or preparing for.

Meeting all these risks, of every type, depends on the government having experienced people in place who understand the risks and know how to put solutions and defenses in place. 

Every four or eight years, as the country changes administration, there’s a handoff of these responsibilities. Ideally, the new staff are up to speed on all risks and will be able to hit the ground running.

Not doing so poses enormous dangers.

The book “The Fifth Risk,” by Michael Lewis, delves into the ways the national government works to keep the American people safe – and what can happen when the people at the helm don’t bring experience, knowledge, and integrity to their task.

For example, after Donald Trump took office in 2017, he nominated Barry Myers to head the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA runs the National Weather Service, which is the country’s official source of information about life-threatening weather. There are local and regional sources of weather news, but they all depend on data they get from the National Weather Service.

At the time, Barry Myers was the CEO of AccuWeather, a privately owned media company that focuses on providing weather forecasts. Essentially, AccuWeather took free data from the government and repackaged it to sell to their customers.

Previously, Myers had lobbied to prevent the National Weather Service from being able to provide weather information directly to the public. A move that would have benefitted his company enormously, as people would have had to turn to private companies for their weather information.

The NWS creates all data on which weather forecasts are based, providing a priceless service that only the government has the resources to perform – and then the data is provided for free to businesses and individuals, who’ve already paid for it via their taxes. We, the people will lose if it is ever made for the benefit of private companies and put behind a paywall.

Imagine if you lived in an area prone to some kind of weather disaster—flooding, fire, or hurricane, say, which most people do—and your only source of information was a paid subscription to a private company like AccuWeather.

Meanwhile, your neighbors up the road have a premium subscription so they get more detailed information, faster, and can be the first out of town, or to the Walmart for supplies, when a disaster is imminent.

If Myers had become head of the NOAA, he would have been in a powerful position to restrict the activities of the National Weather Service to the benefit of AccuWeather. Concerns were raised, and in the end, Myers withdrew his name from consideration, citing health concerns (he had cancer).

Here’s another eye-opening example of a known unknown: What’s happening to all the weapons-grade plutonium and uranium that’s unaccounted for around the world? The job of tracking it – so it doesn’t fall into the wrong hands – belongs to the US Department of Energy. Every year, on average, the DOE tracks down enough of these materials to make 20 nuclear bombs.

I’d say this is important work. But when the Trump Administration took over the Department of Energy in 2017, they didn’t seem to realize exactly what it did. It’s the Department of Energy, not the Department of Defense, that oversees the country’s nuclear weapons arsenal, as well as all nuclear energy sites – and those rogue materials.

The new administration in 2017 didn’t seem to be paying much attention to DOE at all. The head of the department—a retired 3-star Air Force lieutenant general—didn’t even receive a message or phone call letting him know whether he would or would not be staying on in the job. Not knowing what else to do, he just packed up his things and left. 

This is the head of a $30 billion department, essential to national security and infrastructure, just being left out of the loop. The Trump people soon figured out that they’d made a mistake, and asked him to come back.

But the real focus of the book is the unknown unknowns, what the author calls the Fifth Risk. The risks that are coming down the pike that no one can anticipate.

Having experienced and capable people in place, who know what threats to look for, can work to mitigate these in real time and can prevent a crisis from turning into a catastrophe. These people are the reason the country has avoided many worst-case scenarios.

“The Fifth Risk” spells out the importance of a well-functioning government staffed by competent and experienced individuals, who are willing and able to do exactly what they’re supposed to do: safeguard the country from large-scale risks.

As America approaches the transition to a new administration, there is once again a focus on style over substance. And cutting, what should not be cut; experience. 

In doing so, America is being set up to learn about the unknown unknowns the hard way.